Moody sun throws us crumbs

Update 10.2. 02:00

Region 4366 leaves the visible disc, region in the east with increased activity, otherwise quiet sun

02-06 17:00 – Synoptics

• The large and complex region 4366 has taken a break, but is showing growth again in its centre and rear section.
• Region 4362, N-S configuration, has produced two M-class flares each with coronal mass ejection (CME), glancing blow possible on 8 February and 9 February
• Region 4371 has the potential to become a new flare player, but is currently stable.
• New region near the eastern limb, now numbered 4373, and recent growth (flux emergence)

The current fast solar wind near the Earth (≈500-600 km/s) probably originates from the coronal hole CH21 or CH19; another, rather small equatorial coronal hole could keep the velocities above average.

Sunspot group 4366 has a rotating leading spot, first clockwise, then counterclockwise. The results so far: over 60 M-class flares, 6 X-class flares; 0 radiation storms; 2 medium-fast and 3 slow CMEs. Much ado about nothing, you could say. Since 6 February, it has only produced C-class flares. Maybe it will produce another CME, maybe we’ll see it again next rotation. Maybe not.

02-06 18:00 – CME forecast

Four coronal mass ejections that could potentially graze the Earth are on their way. Not very strong, not very Earth-directed, of which a CME of a filament eruption in the northwest from 3 February and one or two CMEs from the active region 4362 to the south are worth mentioning. Arrival probably late on 7 Feb, possible in the course of 8 Feb. SWPC issues a G1 watch for 8 Feb.

SWPC 21.5Rs: 2026-02-04T07:14; lon 30; lat 7; hw: 35°; v: 411 km/s
NASA 21.5Rs: 2026-02-04T05:47; lon 27, lat 5, hw: 22°; v: 321 km/s
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44446/2
NASA Enlil Output: Glancing Blow 2026-02-07T16:00

SWPC 21.5Rs: 2026-02-04T17:18; lon -20; lat 20; hw 10°; v: 1059 km/s
NASA 21.5Rs: 2026-02-04T18:19z; lon -31, lat 29, hw 11°; v: 856 km/s
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44458/1
NASA Enlil Output: -> miss

SWPC 21.5Rs: 2026-02-05T20:33; lon: 15; lat: -33; hw: 28°; v: 751 km/s
NASA 21.5Rs: 2026-02-05T19:14; lon: 14; lat: -36; hw: 28°; v: 830 km/s
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44494/1
NASA Enlil Output: Glancing Blow 2026-02-08T08:00z

SWPC –
NASA 21.5Rs: 2026-02-05T22:14; lon: 2, lat: -35; hw: 16°; v: 394 km/s
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44501/1
NASA Enlil Output: Glancing Blow 2026-02-09T08:00z

Perhaps also worth mentioning: None of the CME comes from region 4366.

02-08 18:00 – The current situation in space

None of the possible CME glancing blows have reached us yet. The probability of something else arriving is low, but it cannot be ruled out either. The solar wind speed is slightly increased at around 450 km/s and will probably remain so due to the imminent connection with the coronal hole CH22-.

Meanwhile, region 4366 has turned back on and is once more producing M-class flares. It is now apparently magnetically connected to region 4358 behind the western limb. Material was also catapulted to that region during one of the flares. CMEs were not produced and the probability of Earth-directed CMEs continues to decrease as region 4366 moves westwards.

All other regions are relatively simple and without growth. 4373 shows slight complexity but also no tendency towards growth.

02-10 02:00 – Synoptics

• The complex sunspot group 4366 leaves the visible disc.
• Region 4374 near the eastern limb shows C-class flare activity, the largest C9.2 so far, with some wiggling of a connected filament.
• The remaining regions have shrunk to simple unipolar groups/patches.

The small coronal hole CH22 could soon lead to slightly increased solar wind speeds, but the effects on Earth will probably remain small.

More updates always on X or bluesky

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