High-Speed Stream, Aurora and New Regions

Update 2026-03-28, 03:00z

Fast solar wind and increased probability of aurora on 22 March and perhaps 23 March. CME glancing blow possible on 25 March

Synoptics

2026-03-22, 17:00 UTC – A large coronal hole with negative polarity in the centre of the solar disc. We are currently in its associated fast solar wind.

In the west, active region 4392 is slowly moving towards the limb. It has given us coronal mass ejections and has now become fairly quiet. Some new regions in the centre, which we continue to observe – at the moment they are still small and relatively simple. Three new regions have appeared on the eastern limb and more are lurking behind them. These are also quiet at the moment, but have the potential to generate space weather events.

We will continue to be influenced by the high-speed stream, the polarity is favourable for the time of year (Russell-McPherron effect), the equinoctial effect further intensifies the effects. The probability of auroras is generally increased.

The animation shows the development of the smaller regions in the centre and the magnetic field over the regions at the edge.

Solar wind analysis

A very rough overview of the events of the past few days. Several CMEs (coronal mass ejections, ‘solar storms’) have passed through and now the fast solar wind from the coronal hole CH33- has reached us. The geomagnetic activity is high to very high at the moment, let’s see if it lasts until dark in Central Europe.

Geomagnetic activity on 22 March 2026

Live updates

Here you will find updates on geomagnetic activity, aurora, changes in the solar wind and events on the sun

2026-03-22, 19:15z – Aurora at the Baltic Sea

The green arc of the auroral oval, with diffuse red aurora above it. We are waiting for the next substorm to see a bit more activity.

2026-03-22, 20:30z – Reverse shock and substorm

Red rays with blue tips (Blue Top Rays) at 21:00 CET (20:00 UTC) – a powerful substorm following the passage of the reverse shock from the onset of the high-speed stream

https://usedom.panomax.com/bansin?t=2026-03-22+21-00-00&r=10&z=65&tl=0

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field has dropped to 5 nT, triggering or intensifying a substorm. If Bt remains this low, the aurora is unlikely to be as intense and the chances of seeing it in the south are dwindling.

Aurora sightings from Central Europe (AKM forum)
Polarlicht 2026-03-22/23

2026-03-23, 01:00z – Filament eruption around 16:00z, 03-22 – CME could graze us on 03-25

☞ https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45244/6

A slow CME could slow this one down. NASA calculates the expected arrival of the shock wave for 24 March; the CME itself could graze us on 25 March, entering the fading high-speed stream in the process. This might cause a slight increase. Kp max 5–6 according to NASA’s Enlil.

2026-03-24, 01:00z – Synoptic Map & CME Update

• Region 4400, with an anti-Hale configuration and a large delta spot (beta-delta), is growing but is slowly rotating out of the Earth-strike zone (our line of sight)
• Region 4392 has fired several more CMEs, but they are no longer Earth-directed
• Regions 4398 and 4397 are in decline
• Regions 4399 and 4402 show no major changes
• Region 4401 is currently the largest, but it has only a bipolar configuration and is therefore quite stable at the moment

We are still coupled with the fast solar wind from coronal hole CH33–. The speed will decrease over the next few days. However, the aurora will initially be limited to the auroral zone at the Arctic Circle. The chance of auroras at mid-latitudes will then increase slightly again on 24 March and even more on 25 March – likely mainly substorm-driven auroras, should the CMEs arrive.

The CMEs from 22 March and 21 March are clearly visible in the Heliospheric Imager. The latter has already caught up with the slower one. At around 1700 UTC on 23 March, the front was at 0.35 AU. It should therefore be possible for it to arrive during the course of 25 March. The CME of 22 March also had a shock front – under certain circumstances, this may arrive earlier (on 24 March). Whether, when and how strongly anything actually arrives is highly uncertain.

2026-03-25, 05:00z – Synoptic Map & Short-term Forecast

• Increasing likelihood of flares and CMEs
• Diminishing influence of the high-speed stream from CH33–
• Region 4401 growing, increasing complexity
• New flaring region on the eastern limb
• Remaining regions stable or decaying
• Chance of a CME glancing blow and/or shock impact late on 25 March, more likely on 26 March

2026-03-28 – Review: Did the CME arrive?

The satellites at Lagrange point 1 detected signs of one or more weaker CMEs passing by: an increase in low-energy accelerated protons in the EPAM, an increase in magnetic field strength, an initial increase followed by a decrease in density, and a decrease in temperature. The magnetic field was oriented southwards only at the start, so the geomagnetic effect remained minor. It cannot be determined with certainty whether the CME that arrived in the early hours of 25 March was the one from 21 March, 22 March, or another.

☞ spacewx.org/real-time-data

The loss cone measurement determines the direction of cosmic rays striking the Earth. CMEs influence these; clear patterns indicate the passage of a CME. In the fourth row from the top, we see a decrease in cosmic ray density (Forbush decrease) – a further indication of a CME

☞ neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/spaceweather/welcome.html#losscone

More updates always on X or bluesky

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