Filament eruptions in all directions, including a little towards the earth

Update 2026-05-04, 2300 UTC

Filament eruptions, active regions rotating out of view, no M-class flares, slow solar storms (CMEs), aurora perhaps from 5 May, especially at higher latitudes

Synoptics

2026-05-03, 0330 UTC – The cluster of active regions in the north-west is slowly rotating out of the earth-strike zone. There are a few new regions in the south. The flare activity is only moderate without stronger M-class flares. Instead, there are repeated filament eruptions.

The coronal hole CH50+ will soon determine our space weather. From around 5 May, we expect its stream interaction region to arrive, reinforced by coronal mass ejections. Whether it will be enough for aurora in Central Europe is unclear.

CMEs (solar storms) from 30 April slowly travelling towards Earth

Relatively inconspicuous on the solar disc, two slow CMEs left the sun on 30 April at around 200-300 km/s. However, they were later accelerated.

SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 + GOES SUVI 195 Base Difference
In the south centre, areas can be seen that are getting darker – probably the place of origin

STEREO A COR2 Science shows two CMEs to the east – i.e. towards Earth

In the side view in the Heliospheric Imager of STEREO A, one very inconspicuous and one very clear structure can be seen.

NASA M2M calculates an arrival on 5 May, probably together with the stream interaction region of the coronal hole CH50+, with only minor effects on the Earth’s magnetic field.

The CMEs can be seen in the J-plot of the Heliospheric Imager. The trajectory can be extrapolated, the result makes an arrival before 5 May seem possible.

Eye-Candy: Filament eruption in the northwest, 2 May

A filament in the northwest between regions 4424 and 4420 behind the limb erupted with a Type II radio burst (Radio Sun played a song). A lot of plasma fell back, but a CME (solar storm) was produced, however not towards Earth.

SDO AIA 171, 304 + 195 Base Difference + 211 Base Difference Composite
Filament material was held back and then fell down again, corona was carried into space – can be seen by the dimming

Filament Lift-Off on late 2nd May/early 3rd May

A large filament lifted off very impressively late on 2 May (UTC day).

Composite of GOES SVI 304, 304 Running Difference, Base Difference, SDO AIA 304, GOES SUVI 284, 193, 171

So far, the CCOR-1 coronograph only shows something vaguely reminiscent of a CME. We need more data to determine whether something has actually left the sun and where it is travelling to. A CME heading towards Earth is certainly possible.

If a CME is travelling towards Earth, there will be an update later.

2026-05-04 – CME from 30 April likely arrived

2026-05-04, 1900 UTC – Since 1500 UTC (17:00 CEST), the interplanetary magnetic field has been consistently south-oriented, initially at -12 nT, now around -8 nT with a plasma velocity of approximately 450 km/s. This could be sufficient for some aurora in northern Central Europe (northern horizon of the North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts). With a substorm, red rays could also be visible further south. Russian webcams are currently showing aurora down to at least 54°N (quasi-dipole 50.5°N) ☞ starvisor.net

2026-05-04 – Red rays in the Alps

2026-05-04, 2020 UTC (2220 CEST)

2026-05-04 – Luminous substorm

2026-05-04, 2300 UTC (2026-05-05, 01:00 CEST) – Solar wind conditions remain favourable for aurora, resulting in a strong substorm from 00:30 CEST (2230 UTC)